I've been tracking California real estate data for nearly 20 years. Some months the numbers are predictable. September 2026 was not one of those months.
By Rob Luecke Sr. | Founder, ShopProp Realty
San Francisco's Median Home Price Crossed $2 Million — While Sales Fell Across the State
The California Association of Realtors released its September 2026 sales and price statistics, and the numbers paint a picture of a market moving in very different directions depending on where you look.
The most striking headline: San Francisco's median sold price for existing single-family homes reached $2,054,000 in September 2026. That's a 17.4% increase from $1,750,000 in September 2025, and a 9.5% jump from August 2026's $1,875,000.
San Francisco also saw sales volume increase 6.2% year over year and 24.5% month over month.
In other words, San Francisco homes were selling faster and for significantly more money than the same time last year.
Not Every Bay Area County Followed San Francisco's Lead
While San Francisco surged, the picture across the Bay Area was more nuanced.
San Mateo County posted a median of $2,327,500, up 8.3% year over year and 3.4% from August. Sonoma County rose 10.1% year over year to $875,000. Marin County hit $1,678,750, up 1.7% from September 2025, with sales volume climbing 11.1%.
But Santa Clara County — home to the heart of Silicon Valley — recorded a median of $1,920,000, representing a 4.0% decline from September 2025's $2,000,000. That's a meaningful reversal for a county that had been one of the state's strongest markets.
Alameda County was essentially flat at $1,265,000, up just 1.2% year over year. Contra Costa held nearly steady at $870,000, up 0.1%.
Solano County, the Bay Area's most affordable market, declined 4.6% to $580,000.
The Bay Area as a whole posted a median of $1,325,000, up 1.9% from September 2025.
Statewide: Prices Rose Modestly, Sales Fell
California's statewide median for single-family homes was $899,720 in September 2026, up 1.7% from $884,390 a year ago. The month-over-month change was a slight decline of 0.2% from August's $901,420.
But the sales side of the equation tells a different story. Statewide single-family home sales fell 6.5% year over year. Condos and townhomes declined 7.5%.
Southern California saw particularly sharp sales drops. San Diego County sales fell 12.2% year over year. Riverside County declined 12.7%. The Inland Empire was down 10.2%.
Even in markets where prices rose, fewer homes were changing hands.
Mortgage Rates Climbed Through the Fall
One factor likely contributing to the sales decline: mortgage rates rose sharply in September and October.
According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.71% during the week of September 3, 2026. By September 24, it had climbed to 7.03%. By October 29, it reached 7.24%.
That's a meaningful increase over a short period. For a buyer purchasing a $900,000 home with 20% down, the difference between a 6.71% and 7.24% rate adds roughly $250 per month to the mortgage payment.
Higher rates compress buying power and can push borderline buyers out of the market entirely, which helps explain why sales volume has been declining even as prices in some markets continued to climb.
What Does This Mean for Buyers?
The September data highlights something important: California is not one housing market. It's dozens of distinct markets moving at their own speeds.
San Francisco and San Mateo are accelerating. Santa Clara and Solano are pulling back. Southern California is seeing fewer transactions even where prices hold.
For buyers, this kind of divergence creates both challenges and opportunities. A market where sales volume is declining may offer more negotiating room. A market where prices are surging may reward buyers who act decisively rather than waiting for conditions to improve.
The one constant is that the numbers matter more than the narratives. Real estate decisions are local, and the statewide median doesn't tell you what's happening on the street where you're looking to buy.
Sources:
- California Association of Realtors — Current Sales & Price Statistics, September 2026 (read November 2, 2026)
- Freddie Mac — Primary Mortgage Market Survey Archive, 2026 (read November 2, 2026)
