For more than two decades, the city of Brisbane has fought plans to redevelop the 680-acre Baylands site — one of the largest undeveloped parcels near San Francisco. Now that resistance may have cost them control over what gets built there.
As Rob Luecke Jr wrote on r/bayarea (195 upvotes, 46K views in 1 hour): "After Brisbane repeatedly missed deadlines to zone the site for as many as 2,200 homes, California declared the city's housing plan noncompliant."
What Happened
California's housing law requires cities to plan for enough new housing to meet regional needs. Brisbane repeatedly failed to zone the Baylands site for the housing it was assigned. The state responded by declaring Brisbane's housing element noncompliant.
That designation triggers serious consequences:
- Lawsuits — the state and housing advocates can sue to force compliance
- Financial penalties — the city risks losing state funding
- Builder's remedy — developers can bypass many local zoning restrictions entirely
The city's Planning Commission has now unanimously recommended moving forward with housing on the site, with a final City Council vote expected in October.
The Lesson for Bay Area Cities
As Rob Jr noted: "The lesson is becoming increasingly clear across California: cities that refuse to plan for housing may ultimately lose control over how that housing gets built."
Brisbane is not alone. Cities across California that have resisted density are facing the same pressure from state housing mandates. For homeowners in these areas, understanding how new development will affect property values and neighborhood character is critical — whether you plan to stay or sell.
What This Means for the San Mateo County Market
The Baylands site could bring up to 2,200 new homes to an area where supply has been severely constrained for decades. San Mateo County median home prices sit around $1.8M. At that price, a traditional 2.5% buyer agent commission is $45,000. With ShopProp, you pay a flat fee starting at $1,995 and get the rest back — up to $43,005 at closing.
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Source: SF Chronicle. As featured in NPR, USA Today, New York Post, and Brookings Institution.
